A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has raised concerns about a possible collision with Earth in 2032. This asteroid, ranging from 40 to 100 meters in size, was detected at the end of 2024 by the ATLAS telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since the discovery, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have been closely monitoring its trajectory and have activated response teams to evaluate the risk and develop protective strategies.
What Are the Risks?
While asteroid 2024 YR4 is expected to safely pass by Earth on December 22, 2032, with a 99% chance of missing our planet, the possibility of a collision cannot be completely ruled out. According to ESA, the asteroid is currently ranked at the top of their risk list, and astronomers worldwide have begun urgent follow-up observations.
ESA’s Role in Monitoring the Asteroid
The ESA’s Planetary Defense Office is overseeing the asteroid’s movement. Initial calculations suggest that a potential impact could affect areas ranging from the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, South Asia, and the Arabian Sea. However, it is still too early to pinpoint the exact impact location.
International Response and Ongoing Efforts
Two UN-supported international asteroid groups—the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG)—are actively discussing how to respond. The German Aerospace Center (DLR) has emphasized the importance of asteroid defense initiatives, referring to NASA’s DART mission, which successfully tested asteroid deflection.
How Likely Is the Impact?
Despite the asteroid’s high risk ranking, the chances of a collision are still considered low, with the ESA estimating the impact probability at only 1.2%. Independent assessments from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and NEODyS align with these findings, reinforcing the low likelihood of a direct impact.
The Importance of Monitoring Near-Earth Objects
The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 has prompted the scientific community to intensify efforts in monitoring celestial objects that could pose a threat to Earth. The ongoing preparations by NASA and ESA are crucial to minimize potential damage. The situation underscores the importance of tracking near-Earth objects and staying prepared for any emerging risks.
Next Steps for Monitoring and Defense
ESA and NASA continue to gather data on the asteroid’s size and trajectory. Due to the asteroid’s eccentric orbit, predicting its path with absolute certainty is challenging. Currently, it is moving almost directly away from Earth, complicating the process of determining its future trajectory.
The ESA has also pointed out that with advancements in asteroid detection technology, we will likely uncover more near-Earth objects that were previously undetected. For now, asteroid 2024 YR4 is rated as a level 3 risk on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. However, the ESA emphasizes that the risk assessment of asteroids often fluctuates, and the impact probability may decrease as more observations are made.
Looking Ahead
In the coming months, asteroid 2024 YR4 may move out of Earth’s view. By 2028, its risk level will be reassessed, and further observations will determine if a collision is still a possibility. Until then, the asteroid will remain on the ESA’s risk list, and efforts to monitor and assess the situation will continue.
